01 September 2008

Sarah...

My Alaskan blog got no new posts in the miserable rainy month of July, or the gorgeous sunny month of August. This first day of September will get one. This post is about Sarah Palin.

It's taken me a weekend of pinching myself to accept that I didn't suffer some kind of debilitating brain injury while cabin-bulding or eat the wrong kind mushroom in the woods... Apparently I'm still in the same universe you all are in. And in this universe, the possibility of a President Sarah Palin exists. It could come down to a few thousand votes and a single heartbeat...

OK... believe me I could go on... but... this will be a short post. Others far more (and far less) qualified have unleashed the blogging - ad infinitum - this will generate. The shear volume that will accumulate, from pundits to policymakers, from peons to politicos, will set all kinds of records I'm confident. This race, this election, will be the most talked about, the most record-breaking on many fronts, ever. It is a mind-bogglingly intriguing time to be an American citizen, a voter, and especially, an Alaskan. This script could not have been more interstingly written by the most talented screen writer. It is incredible. It is terrifying. It makes me... proud? It makes me... cringe?

But... all those thoughts/opinions can be found elsewhere... my one tiny little contribution that I will share is my sole personal experience related to Sarah Palin.

Simply, I spent a couple hours in February at an event in Fairbanks she was at. On February 16th I went to the Finish of the Iron Dog snow machine race on the frozen Chena river in Fairbanks. Sarah Palin's husband Todd Palin has won this race four times in past years. Not this year. This year he hit a snow-covered oil-drum at pretty high speed... inertia being what it is Todd kept going while his machine decidedly stopped. After about 70 feet he landed... a dusting off and clean bill of health from the clinic in Galena... a pushing on... only after his completion of the race was it determined he fractured his arm. Said Sarah of her Alaskan hubbie: “Going 400 miles with a broken arm, that’s impressive.”

In any case, I was there when Todd Palin came in and so I shot some video of the Palin family distributing hugs to eachother. I posted it on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBbCcdPXS78

The video got about 400 views in first about 6 months. And about 3,200 views in the last 3 days. Interestingly, it got it's first comment on Friday morning... I had just woken up and was checking email... I got one from "YouTube Service" that said I had a comment on my video... "They do know the Veep mansion doesn't get a lot of snow, don't they?" Huh? What?

"Huh? What?" Indeed...

There is more than meets the eye in my video... three of her 5 children are in this video. Daughters Willow and Piper are by her side. Son Track isn't. He is away with the Army... The third? Though I stood feet away from her I had no idea (no one there save Todd probably did) that under her winter coat Sarah Palin was five months pregnant with a son... a son she knew had one too many 21st chromosomes... So that makes four... Finally, absent from view is 17 year old Bristol... Bristol... named after Bristol Bay... we learn this morning... was either pregnant or about to be around this time... Why these prying observations? If only all these were all personal, private family issues. But they won't be. They are matters of national interest. Her stance on abortion elevates these matters to the highest level of national attention... and... for this election, distraction. And perhaps someday to the utmost of relevancy... to those who sit in the highest court in the land...

Huh. What. Wow.



Sources:

http://www.adn.com/sports/snowmachining/irondog/2008/story/317669.html
http://www.newsminer.com/news/2008/feb/17/palin-suffers-broken-arm-iron-dog/

27 June 2008

The Copper

The next adventure is nearing: July 14-18 I'll float The Copper River from Chitina to Cordova with 3 others in a 14' raft. This is something I've wanted to do since, well, since the first time I saw Alaska's 4th largest river. Having done a few AK river trips, I find myself in the distinctly puzzling position of essentially possessing most of the required gear... When a trip materializes on the horizon, what do I want to do more than anything? Go out and swipe those plastic cards on new gear purchases... So... having everything fundamentally necessary, I had to resort to buying a couple "toys"... though that's probably not the right word for items that will only become required should the shit really hit the fan out there... but which make me feel pretty dang on top of things to have... First, although I've been a firearms owner for 16 of my 28 years (thanks mom for that first Ruger 10/22 you bought me!), I purchased my first revolver this week. A .44 magnum Smith & Wesson short barrel bear gun. It's gorgeous, hefty little object. It gives me goosebumps to hold it, but I respect it intensely and what it might someday do for me. It also shoots a light shot load that I'm hoping may work for collecting small mammals for the Museum. The other toy I bought is a SPOT satellite messenger. (www.findmespot.com). I've wanted something like this for years. I want to do a solo paddle from the Brooks to the Arctic ocean late this summer... so this is something that will give my loyal fans (wink, wink Mom) a chance to track my progress on Google Maps... Pretty fancy... All for now...

26 April 2008

Scottish Connections...



All it takes are a few chance triangulations of circumstances, blended with a little googlewikiing, and presto I have the makings of a new blog cocktail, or blogtale if you will... Today the main ingredients are Scotland and, well, Scottish things. I'll serve it up in a cup designed by an ancestor of mine, George Heriot, pictured above...

This week I'm at a new housesitting gig... It's a nice home up on Chena Ridge, the residential area west of the University where 3/4 of my academic committee live... aka "Snob Hill" to some. Everyone I know up here however are great folks... it's just their view of The River and The Range is a about a hundred thousand dollars better than mine. Right now, I'm typing while looking out on the increasingly slushy Tanana river and flats beyond. The folks I'm sitting for are a wonderful breed of people, the librarian. He is emeritus at UAF. They have fantastic book collections, with rich holdings in Alaskana, sailing/boatmaking, cookbooks, outdoor Americana, and literary fiction... he is a proud member of the ACLU and the NRA (he does his own handloading), and has a beautiful knife collection adorning an entire wall. The New Yorker, Sierra, Audobon, Wooden Boat, the American Hunter, Gray's Sporting Journal, and 4 or 5 national newspapers can be found on surfaces around the house. The couple has the most organized, densely stocked, well provisioned cupboard, bar, and cheese drawer I have seen. The spice shelf is alphabetized and exhaustive. Foremost among the themes of the house is Scotland. He is a prominent member of the Fairbanks Red Hackle Pipe Band. He has an impressive collection of single malt scotch whiskey: a few bottles, some unopened, were distilled when I was in diapers and bottled when I was in high school.

Something Scottish that caught my eye the other afternoon: a couple paperboard beer coasters on an end table in the entertainment room. Having two of them, I took a photo of obverse and reverse:



Notice anything? Yes, that's my surname, sans redundant lettering. Through a bit of googlewikiing I found that Edinburgh was home to the Heriot brewery from 1837 to, alas, the late 1990's. I'm not sure of the details, but it is no longer extant. Thanks to Goolge books, here is an entry from an 1869 book. I provide a colorful snippet...

The Industries of Scotland Their Rise, Progress, and Present Condition By David Bremner: "A description of the malting and brewing establishments of Messrs J Jeffrey & Co of the Heriot Brewery will convey some idea of the mode in which an extensive business of this kind is carried on The malting premises bottling house and ale stores of this firm are at Roseburn at the extreme west end of the city while their brewery is in the Grassmarket This separation is a considerable inconvenience but as the brewery by repeated extensions occupied every inch of available ground it became imperative when further extension was required to sever the connection between the malting and brewing departments Accordingly a year or two ago the firm acquired a site at Roseburn adjoining the Caledonian Railway and erected thereon malting premises and stores of great extent and fitted up in the most complete manner The malt bar n is a "


I know with some certainty that my "rr" "tt" progenitors were over in another hemisphere by this time in the 1830's. But what I'm not sure of is the relationship between the Heriot Brewery and the rather famous Scotsman George Heriot of Edinburgh two centuries prior, whose portrait hung in my grandfather's study during my childhood....

George Heriot was the oldest of ten, descended from the Heriots of Trabroun, a "family of some antiquity in East Lothian." From the 1877 book:

The Scottish Nation By William Anderson, William Holl, William James Linton: "HERIOT [is] a surname derived from a legal term hariot or heriot being under the feudal system a due belonging to a lord at the death of his tenant consisting of his best beast either horse ox or cow ... The name is old in Scotland ....William John and Gilbert Heriot safely conducted Robert the Steward out of the reach of his enemies when eagerly sought after by the English. The lands of Trabrown in East Lothian were granted by the earl of Douglas to John Heriot about 1423 ... Of this family was the celebrated George Heriot..."

George Heriot was, in highly abbreviated bio, was a goldsmith who became jeweler to Queen Anne of Denmark, and then to her husband King James VI in 1601. Apparently he sort of shifted from crafting gold to financing it, and made himself luxuriantly wealthy. This apparently wasn't uncommon. An official request by Queen Anne for a quick loan is interesting on a few levels (from "Cassell's Old and New Edinburgh," 1882 by James Grant)



"GEORDG HERIOTT I ernestlie dissyr youe present to send me twa hundrethe pundis vithe all expidition becaus I man hest me away presentlie ANNA R"

My rough modern translation:

"Geordie, hook me up with 200 Pounds, immediately, I gotta get outta here this weekend."

Isn't it interesting, and I'm no scholar on such things, how seriously loose spelling was back then? I like that she put an extra T in there though.

Heriot moved to London when King James became James I of England, and he died there in 1624. After a couple of wives (sad deaths at young ages), he had sired two sons, but no legitimate children were left in his will upon his death. A tragic death at sea of two brothers is inferred. A couple of young women were to be found in his will, and are presumably "natural heirs" (i.e. illegitimate). In any case, that particular line of the Heriot name ended with "Jingling Geordie" it seems (that moniker is from Sir Walter Scott's George Heriot character made famous in "The Fortunes of Nigel").

So George Heriot's name did not live on in flesh, but it did in stone. A sizable chunk of his change went to establishing an institution in Edinburgh called the "Heriot Hospital" for "faitherless bairns" (Scots for "orphaned children"), which still exists in a pretty prestigious way (http://www.george-heriots.com/HeriotsHome.htm). An old image of this place is found in "Cassell's Old and New Edinburgh." Notice again the loose spellings... "Heriott Orphanotrophium" vs. "Heriot's Hospital" right below.

Cassell's old and new Edinburgh By James Grant: "ORPHAUOTR OPK1VM J&fata REDUCED FACSIMILE OF A VIEW OF HERIOT"


George Heriot's name also lent itself to Heriot-Watt University, also in Edinburgh. Yes, that Watt, as in the unit of power equal to one joule of energy per second. Not that the Scots were contemporaneous... Watt was born in Greenock Scotland a hundred years after Heriot's death. However, the nascent university chose those two for it's name... it's website today says that it was the worlds first "technical institute," and it stands as the 8th oldest University in the UK. It now has 17,000 students and four campuses, three in Scotland, and one in Dubai of all places.

So there's lots more history of George Heriot out there. I'm not really sleuthing anything new here... but this stuff is immensely interesting to to me though because I spent a lot of time gazing at George Heriot as a kid.

The picture in my grandfather's study was a black and white drawing in a gilded frame. I presumed that pretty much there wasn't much to be known more about this person. He wasn't in the WorldBook or any of the other books on my grandfather's shelves. This was in the late 80's, before the internet came to my home... Neither the Turlock nor Modesto libraries had much more info, at least to the extent an amateur historian of single digit age could find. So George Heriot was sort of a minor diety in my childish worldview... someone I was told I was related to in some sort of hazy way, in a sort of divine way in my head... meaning, not really a relationship that that can be figured out concretely, but nevertheless should be taken as granted and thusly revered, the way only things that haven't been figured out are supposed to be revered.

But whence this portrait? This portrait that I'll hang in my Alaskan cabin one of these days? Well... using my extensive art history research training (not), I've concluded that it was based on a painting by Paul van Somer, and copied John Scougall in 1698. The original is now lost. Most of the black and white prints are copies of Scougall's painting copy. The one from my grandfather's study is, I think, a reprint of a Scougall copy, published by John and Charles Esplens in 1743. It's a bit confusing though... the National Portrait Gallery (UK) has 6 portraits (only two of which have images online), which include those by: "John and Charles Esplens, after Paul Van Somer," (huh? I thought Wikipedia said Somer's was lost?), "David Scougall, after D. Lizars' (huh? Who is David, and is he related to John?), "John and Charles Esplens, after David Scougall" (What? Are we going in circles here?), "Robert Cooper, after David Scougall" (OK....) Interestingly, the Wikipedia article says "Scougal had a very extensive practice, which latterly led him into some hasty work, said to be observable in the portrait of George Heriot, which he copied in 1698 from the now lost original by Paul van Somer." If the original is AWOL, that judgment of hastiness must arise not from a failure of likeness, but I suppose in a failure of technique. Hmm... The same entry doesn't bash Scougall's portraits of William III, Queen Mary, or Queen Anne. In fact, Queen Mary's is "by far the best - well drawn, good in colour, and suggestive of the influence of Van Dyke's work."

Here's the painting attributed to Scougall, notice the gold he holds in his hand:



And here is the derivative drawing that is part of the imagery of my childhood:



Here is a portrait of Queen Anne, by Marcus Gheeraerts the Younger, c.1605-10. Meaning that the jewels she wears are perhaps crafted by Heriot...to my knowledge I'm the first to notice this, but it looks like maybe the pearl necklace in the two portraits is the same... not sure... Also... that picture of George Heriot's drinking cup from the beginning of this blog, designed by himself, and it occurs to me, probably crafted by himself.




In any case, a lot can change over the generations. The story of the Herriott's in America is very far removed from the Royal Court... My progenitor, David Herriott, appears came to New Jersey in the late 1680's... probably as an indentured servant to Lord Campbell... The story of the family in America is also colorful, though certainly not as highbrow... Stuff for another story...

23 April 2008

The Gobi comes to Fairbanks...

Today I noticed two things from my Tanana River bluff vista. First, the River developed some really nice blue puddles on top of the slushy snow. They grew noticably, like a time-lapse video right before my eyes over the course of my 9am-9pm workday in front of the window...Secondly, I couldn't help but notice the haze obscuring my beloved Alaska Range... this would-be annoying sky-scum has been totally redeemed by the amazing fact that it originates from Russian forest fires started this week. Also contributing to the haze is dust blown in from storms in the Gobi Desert. Wow... Dust from the Gobi Desert. That that is even possible kind of floors me. Somehow I just don't feel that close to central Asia, but I guess I am. I sort of wish I could go outside and put some in a jar.My brother's girlfreind's academic advisor at UAF, Dr. Cathy Cahill, is an atmospheric scientist who basically specializes in stuff in the air other than air, and was quoted in the Newsminer today saying this is a particularly stormy year in the Gobi. The season is April-May. The worst year was 2001, when dust went as far east as Greenland. Gobi to Greenland. What a journey for a speck of dust...

One other Gobi desert traveler is here in town this week: Helen Thayer, the adventurer, the first woman to walk to either of earths poles (the North one) without dog or snowmachine. She is a hero(ine) of mine. This Friday she'll speak on her trek through the Gobi Desert. Here's to travel... by dust and woman...

Josie the Golden (oblivious, apparently, to puddle and haze alike):

14 April 2008

Reach out and touch some moose...

I know almost nothing about the so-called "telephone." Yet today I bought one using my (anticipated) Economic Stimulus Package $600. Thanks GeeDubb... As far as I can tell that's the only thing your sorry presidency has ever done for me. In truth, I had been planning to put my 6 Benjamins towards my crushing credit card debt, just as the Fed feared I would. But hell, I thought this morning, first I'll swipe my credit card, then I'll wait a few weeks for my stimulation to arrive. That way everybody wins! Seems very American, no? So I bought an iPhone and a 2-year contract. And here's what I learned via 10 minutes on Wikipedia about the proud heritage of my new gizmo:

A brief timeline of historic spoken telecommunications events:

1844-1875... various Europeans tinker with "speaking telegraphs"

1875-77(ish). Americans Bell, Gray, and Edison file patents up the wazoo for various telephone-y devices... a complex story, best glossed in blogs...

1981... AT&T ("American Telephone & Telegraph" until 2005 for crying out loud) launch famous add campaign slogan "Reach out and touch someone."
As a kid, Ian, hearing this phrase, would puzzle over how it seemed not quite the right thing to say about telephones... very little touching going on, the way Ian understood them...

2000... Now twenty-year-old Ian goes to Berkeley with little black cellular phone that his mom gave him. Played "Snake" alot on it. Called home dutifully around midterms or finals... (pers. comm. - data not found on Wikipedia). Subsequently discarded and forgotten for the better part of a decade.

2008... After years of flak from family and acquaintances who would allegedly call if the opporunity were there, Ian buys the absolute apex of telephone evolution, the iPhone. Drives to the spruce forest he optimistically considers his future cabin, and makes some phone calls to family and friends, and incidentally, while talking inside his truck, comes closer to living moose than ever before in his life. Takes pictures with iPhone camera while speaking on speaker phone. What Hath God Wraught? (oops, wrong gizmo...)

2009... to infinity and beyond...










13 April 2008

V is for Viszla... W is for Weimaraner...

As I write, I'm finishing my 2007 taxes (with 2 days to spare if you'll believe that), and watching two pooped pups laze on a sofa. I'm on day 3 of a week of dog sitting quite the pair of specimens of Man's best friend. They're both gorgeous creatures, but are thoroughly wearing me out. We eat together, read together, sleep together... when I forgot to close the bathroom door when filling the tub, we almost ended up bathing together. They have insatiable needs to go outside every 5 minutes to run around, and then almost immediately they make a fabulous ruckus expressing urgent need to get back inside... to rest? no, to run around the couch ferociously. The shear energy of these two is exhausting me... They are both sweet creatures though. The darling little Vizla, Brooks, needs imperatively to sit within a yard of my face, wherever that may be, and whine sweetly in some sort of pained affection. That, or sit right at my feet and scan incessantly while huffing and grumbling at all the potential threats that may be responsible for the minor noises of the surrounding neighborhood. The photos below don't totally capture these draining experiences, but they're all I've got... I'm experiencing digital camera "issues" these days, so am taking pics with my computer...

This is a really deceptive photograph. Kele, the Weimaraner, usually doesn't sit still. This photo reminds me of the famous William Wegman Weimaraners...







This was funny... I was warned this might happen... and it did... fortunately there wasn't much water in the tub, though to my touch it was scalding... crazy little girl...





In any case, we're having fun, but I'm not sure these are the breed for me. What I find endlessly fascinating is the predictive ability of the breed description. These little creatures are such obedient servants to their genetic destiny. They're rather closely related breeds actually. If you're interested, see Wiki entries:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Vizsla
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimaraner

07 April 2008

Sweet Home Ala...laska

Yesterday, after the interview for my summer Instructor job, I decided to put off procrastinating about all the stuff I really should be doing... So I decided it would be a good time for a joyride around my future neighborhood of Fox, Alaska. I'm building a cabin overlooking Fox this summer, and the gears in my brain are starting to crank up again... I'm getting kinda excited... So, while watching the minute hand on the clock of April slowly tick by, anticipating my winning Nenana Ice Classic guess and share of the jackpot, I thought I'd get some ideas for how to spend that windfall on building this summer. I wanted to document some of the character of the area... I wanna fit in of course... Just another chance to bolster my feel for the milieu my new 'hood...

So I took a few pictures along the way... me crusin' my 'hood.. I used the little built-in camera on my MacBook Pro. This is an extremely challenging and rather inadvisable way to take decent pictures, the only redemptive thing being that a laptop is a fantastic tripod (er, monopod).



My Acre of pristine Black Spruce... I got a little bit of work to do... but not today... I ain't even getting outa the truck today...


Same place on a pretty spring day last year... Down in the Valley is historic Fox, AK.



Just down the road are some really interestingly zoned parcels... My neigborhood covenants say things like I need to have a minimum of 400 square feet, and no livestock, or sewage treatment plants, or penitentiaries, or nuclear reactors... But I guess my neighbors can have Geodesic Domes and Ice Tower's. I'm glad, these things are Cool with a capital C... but I'm skeptical whether they're MY style...



Just accross the street is the Trans-Alaska Pipeline... a nice pullout for millions of tourerists that come thick as 'skeeters in the summer. Actually, I bet this is the most frequently visited/photographed hundred yards of the whole 800 mile affair. From my cabin I think I'll be able to see a nice cleared swath of forest on the opposite side of the valley where the pipe's buried... It's aboveground at the viewpoint, as even tourerists are likely to presume...



Down the road from the viewpoint, there're some real highlights of the high-latitudes. The furthest north microbrewery, Silver Gulch, and the 'Dawg across the street, and the true source of all things good, the Fox Spring. A popular T-shirt reads: "Fox, AK. Where the People are Unusual and the Beer is Unusually Good." I'll plead the 5th...







And if that weren't enough, I forgot to mention that between the pipe and the drink, is my favorite hole in the whole world. The Cold Regions Research Engineering Laboratory Permafrost Tunnel. I like to think of it as a time-machine. Inside there are literally bones and roots sticking out of the walls from organisms that lived 10's of thousands of years ago. It smells like a barnyard. I've heard it described as "Odeur de mammouth." It's dark, cold, and dirty, and old. I love it!



Oh, so why the tunnel? Well, this whole Fox area was a bigtime gold mining area the first half of the 20th century... This fact makes it remind me in a big way of my beloved home state of CA's motherload region...



Fox is also the fork in the road to Alaska's two highways into the arctic. The Steese goes up to Circle, and dead-ends at the Yukon River. The Elliot goes to Livengood, where the Dalton Highway will take you 414 miles further to Prudhoe Bay...





On my way back to UAF, a couple other noteworthy residential building concepts present themselves... I don't think the plane-house is being lived in now... not sure about the Tower-house... sorry for the crap picture, it's actually impressive... but again, not my style...





So, bottom line: I think I'll not be doing tunnels or towers or planes or domes... I think I'll stick with a good old log cabin... Here's a map of the places I visited... note that the unvegetated area on the valley bottom is not city/concrete, but gen-you-ine historic mining tailings...



All for now... see ya later... stop by Fox sometime!

03 April 2008

Don't Bet on April 31st...

The Nenana Ice Classic guess submission deadline is day after tomorrow, Saturday April 5. Don't miss it! Guess early and guess often. No, that's voting... Guess late and don't go crazy, that's the best strategy...let me explain.

In my last post I outlined, quite convincingly I feel, what a hopeless guesser I am. How the first year Rationality and Reason prevailed and every year since I picked past winning times kinda willy-nilly and according to birthday's of relatives and pretty girls. Nevertheless I'm going to now segue directly into why I should be convincing you how to guess scientifically... It's back to Reason for me too this year...

First, I established in a comment to the last post that the best guess is April 30, since that is the day on which the most Breakups have occurred. It seems to be the "average" day, and the guess of mine that is almost always closest. But, the question arises, has April 30 always been the average day?

Below is a graph of Breakup date over the years:




OK... "Year" is on the Y-axis, and "Day after Jan 1" on the X-axis is just another way to note the date... What do you see? If you're like me, you see dots... Another way to look at the same exact data is to connect the dots:




OK... Now what do you see? These connected dots show "trends" better, and to me, it looks like the jaggedy line is kind of going down-ish... But IS IT? Well, statistics to the rescue... going back to the original dot view, and plotting a regression line we get...



The red regression line points down. Notice, that the beginning of the line is at about the level of 129 "Days after Jan 1," i.e. about May 8. Notice, that the right end of the line is at about the level of 121 "Days after Jan 1," i.e. about May 1. So, there it is. Breakup is happening *on average* one week early now then when the Ice Classic started. That fact is "statistically significant." All those numbers to the right of the graph tell us that, particularly one that say's "p(uncorr):0.0009916." What that tells us is the chance that this line doesn't actually point down (i.e. have a negative slope, i.e. breakup happening earlier). The chance that this statistical "inference" isn't legitimate is less than 0.0001,meaning a 1/10,000 chance breakup isn't happening earlier, or conversely a 99.999% chance breakup is happening earlier. OK, I'm convinced... but... has it been *gradually* getting earlier. Like, a day a decade, e.g.? Well, look back at the first graph... To me it looks like the jaggedy line starts going south in a hurry about 1970... what do you think? ... If I break up the dataset into two periods 1917-1970 and 1971-2007 and do the same statistical test, on each period individually we get the following. First, 1917-1970:



Well now... turns out that the average date of breakup didn't get statistically signicficantly earlier or later from 1917-1970! Wow... that's interesting... how about 1970-now?



Wow, that's striking. The date of Breakup got way earlier since 1970. What's going on? I haven't a clue.

But, you might fairly ask, great but how is this going to make me rich? Well, all this tells you is the best date to guess, the current "average" date. So, the end of that red line "now" is at about day 119-120 or something, i.e. April 30...

But there has to be something "beneath" that variation or trend in Breakups... Breakup is a combination of things, ice melting because of warmer temperatures in spring, snow melting and flushing into the river and pushing the ice up and out, etc... so, one would imagine that if the ice is thinner, these things would cause Breakup to happen earlier... Is that the case? Well, ice thickness has been measured at the tripod, not since the beginning, but they have since 1989. Below is a graph of the data. On the Y-axis is Breakup date, on the X-axis is not "year," but instead "ice thickness," as measured on about April 1 every year. You don't need to know which dots come from which years, and it doesn't matter (see P.S. if you're interested):



So, here's what this means. Thicker ice in spring tends to result in later Breakups. If ice thickness didn't matter, then the line would be flat. It's not. You can imagine that ice thickness measure on December 1 might result in a flat line, since there's a lot that can happen between then and Breakup, extreme cold snaps, extreme warm snaps, etc... i.e. the predictive power of an ice-measurement on April 1st is much better than the predictive power on Dec 1. Duh... but how "good" a predictor is April 1 ice? Damn good actually. It can explain about 42% (say the stats on the right) of the "variation." If it explained 100% then all the dots would be right on the line, and you'd know exactly when Breakup would be just based on ice thickness. But 42% is darn good for a single "predictor variable." Other things explain the rest. Things like air temperature or how much snow is in the hills contributing to "flushing" the ice out. But we don't have that data. All we have is ice-thickness. So... almost done... what you should do is go to the Ice Classic website, figure out what the measurement for April 1 was this year, find that thickness on the X-axis and see what date to guess... that's what I did in 2004, and I did, meh... OK... Anyway, this is the best reason to guess late, to wait for that April 1 ice measurement, the best predictor. Oh, as for time of day. Throw a dart at a clock... No, just kidding. The early afternoon seems good... Oh, and of course, you can ignore all this and just go with your intuition... In any case, GOOD LUCK!


(P.S. There, apparently is no correlation between year and date or year and thickness in the 1989-2007 dataset... interesting)

Links:
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

Advanced Reading:

An article in the prestigious peer reviewed journal Science by a Stanford scientist (Wherein Tanana is misspelled Tenana):
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/294/5543/811
And it's interpretation:
http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2001/october31/alaskabet-1031.html

A caveat (that I haven't addressed) written by the same scientist in the other of the worlds two most prestigious journals, Nature:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v414/n6864/full/414600a.html
And it's interpretaion:
http://news-service.stanford.edu/pr/01/leapyear1212.html

A lengthy retort by some guy on the internet (who has way more graphs than I do, no fair!):
http://www.john-daly.com/nenana.htm

Some journalists have noticed the Nenana Ice Classic over the years
(Thanks Google "News Archive Search"!):



E.g. in 1973, about the time things were heating up... the NYT ran an article:
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20813F93954137A93CAA9178ED85F478785F9

An article by Sagarin "In Support of Observational Studies":
http://www.esajournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1890%2F1540-9295(2007)5%5B294%3AWBSOOS%5D2.0.CO%3B2&ct=1

... this may not be my last Ice Classic Post... It's about all I think about this month...

30 March 2008

April, fools...

At this time of year I like to entertain ridiculous get-rich-quick fantasies. This equates to my hopeless preoccupation with the Nenana Ice Classic, since I have no other plans to get rich. This will be the 5th year I've thrown my guesses into the red cans around Fairbanks' grocery stores, bars, and gas stations. Every year I do 8 guesses. I figure since it is "wagering" contest, I should curb any possible predilection toward bad addictive behavior by keeping a steady $20 cap on my "charitable contributions" to my favorite road-system village. As long as the tickets are $2.50 each, I'll spend $20.

I'm actually going to be a little more serious in a future post, since I'll be thinking about this all month... bu for this first post, I thought I'd just lay out in an easily interpretable Table just what a poor guesser I am... apparently you're gonna have to click on it... sorry... In any case, the deadline for guesses is April 5, which is also the deadline for my summer Adjunct Faculty position application...hence a very important monetary date for me...

OK, more Ice-Classic blogwash to come...



P.S. I'm not feeling clever today. Don't bother looking for a "joke" in this post other than the obvious ones...

28 March 2008

Nanook of the south...

A record was broken today that I think will get some national and international attention. OK, what is one of the most important issues facing modern civilization? Global Warming/Climate Change. And, what is one of icons of this issue? The Polar Bear. So, what happened today? A Polar Bear wandered into Fort Yukon, an Athabaskan village in Interior Alaska that's 250 miles from the coast. That's as far inland as a polar bear has ever been documented in the state. That's very interesting. What happened to it? Well, a local gunned it down with an assault rifle. Unfortunately, that act is going to get a lot of attention and hubub, and while that may not have been what I'd personally like to have seen happen, I think it may distract from the far more interesting thing. What the heck was a "marine mammal" doing in the middle of the state?

Last fall, while way up on the Dalton Highway for a caribou hunt, a friend, who had recently moved to Interior from Southeast, asked a reasonable question. "Do polar bears ever come this far south?" With the kind of foolishly assured bravado that even 10 years of science training still hasn't purged me of (but should), I said "Nah... Prudhoe and Deadhorse area, sure, but not this far down into the foothills of the Brooks range..." Never say never. We were in the Happy Valley Area, a good 80 miles from the oil complexes on the coast where I assumed polar bears were invisibly tethered to there sea-ice habitat. A few short weeks later I found myself in a discussion with a hunter. Now I can't remember how it came up, but he volunteered that yea, actually about 5 years ago he and his partners came across a polar bear feeding off a caribou carcass just off the Haul Road, literally, in the Toolik Lake area, a good 125 miles south of the coast. Wow, OK, I guess I was wrong, oops, my bad. But was such southern meandering common then? No, not at all. Apparently, until today, that instance was the farthest inland documented polar bear in Alaska. That 2002 lost bear was a bit luckier than today's, as assault rifles are rather uncommon weapons in the Dalton Highway hunting corridor... it's surmised, I think, that the bear mosied on back to the ocean...

OK, so let's be blunt. Are there links between Global Warming and a polar bear in Fort Yukon? Well on a number of grounds I object to the question being raised at all... but let me be circuitous in giving an answer to my own blunt question. First, not all the results are in. Apparently there's a minsicule chance the bear is a polar/grizzly hybrid. A hunter in April 2006 shot a polar bear with odd brownish spots... hmm... couple tests later... and the DNA don't lie, momma and papa, well, shouldn't have got along as well as they apparently did... But in fact, hybrids do occur (and in fact are reportedly fertile) and perhaps have enough anatomical, physiological, and behavioral traits that could sometimes allow them to do well in grizzly country... i.e. terra firma. This fact, hybridization potential brings up two related issues, or rather two related views... one view back on polar bear history, one forward on polar bear future. Basically this is a fascinating evolutionary tale with some policy implications I think.

The oldest known fossil of a polar bear is only 100,000 years. I say only, even though that's a long time. I mean, start counting to 100,000 and tell me how far you get. That's a lot of years. But in evolutionary and geologic time, not so much. To put it in perspective, the dozen or so bear species on earth today shared a common ancestor that branched off from other carnivores 38 million years ago or so... by that clock, the polar is a brand new bear. But it might not even REALLY be a new bear. The folks at Alaska Department of Fish and Game who are going to verify whether or not this is a hybrid bear, are likely going to look at it's teeth, particularly the molars, and in a couple days there'll probably be some DNA results. A close look at that DNA, whether mom and pop were the same species or not, holds a fascinating tale. Recently, researchers, in comparing DNA from polar bears to that of brown/grizzly bears from various populations, uncovered a really fascinating story. Some brown bears are more closely related to all polar bears than they are to other brown bears. Think about it. Get it? By a lot of scientists' definition, polar bears can't even be considered their own species. They're just a really unique sub-species of brown bear. In fact, just 10,000 - 20,000 years ago, from the fossil evidence, those teeth that are today diagnostic, weren't all that distinctive... that's how rapidly the polar bear has adapted to it's sea-ice habitat and specialized diet... it's a very different way of life, and selection has resulted in some very fast evolution to form earth's largest living carnivore and current icon of change in the north. In a way, it's rather fitting. Change, at this moment in time, is happening at potentially unprecedented rates in the North. And, low and behold, our chosen icon is this crazy species who itself shape-shifted in the blink of a geologic eye into our beloved Nanook...

OK, finally... looking forward and the policy implications... Clearly, no matter how quickly the polar bear evolved, or how genetically distinct it is, there is nothing else like it. I say it is worth treasuring and fighting to save at whatever the cost. If we can't muster the will to care unconditionally about the polar bear, do we have any hope for caring at all, for saving anything? I can certainly see a couple of the above mentioned facts, wielded in the wrong hands, being used in a case against the polar bear. I'm going to play devil's advocate, and leave the last word with the devil. There are certainly rebuttals, and rebuffs to those rebuts, but I'll leave it open... "If it's not even really a real species, why should it be considered for listing as a Threatened Species?" (I actually don't know about this, perhaps sub-species can be...). And, relevant to today's event... "If a polar bear can make it down into Interior Alaska and remain healthy [untill gunned down with an AR-15], doesn't that show potential that they could adapt well to a world without summer sea ice? I mean, they evolved so quickly in the past, perhaps they'll just adapt to the new regime... " What do you think?

26 March 2008

How to starve in the arctic...

Being relatively new to the sport, I'm still not sure exactly what qualifies as good blog fodder. I think I'm trying to tackle a little much per post... Last post: the relevance of the human genome... this one: starvation in the arctic... These require books, or shelves of books, to adequately treat... but no, I'm chiming in… my two cents cannot be held back... don’t even try… For this post, I'm afraid, I’m about to embark on a 3,500 word essay of sorts into a topic of which I have only a tad bit of experience-born empathy... but hey, I can say that about almost anything, so here goes…

So last night Trystan and I attended a talk by one of Fairbanks' beloved Cole brothers, Terrence Cole. He's a Professor of History and the Director of the Office of Public History at UAF. He’s not to be confused (unless you’re new to town) with his twin brother Dermot, of Fairbanks Daily NewsMiner fame... Terrence did parenthetically mention that most of Dermot’s good ideas are actually his own though... (to no audible objection from the audience, so either Dermot was not in attendance or tacitly agrees). Well the title of Cole’s talk, and thus the size of the crowd, was “Murder, Mutiny, and Cannibalism.” Apparently there had been recent Easter dinner familial discourse over whether the words “Mayhem” and “Beastiality” were warranted; they weren’t, which is good, because I don’t think the Fire Marshall would have been pleased with the turnout coming from all cracks and crannies of Fairbanks and hilly environs had those words made the cut… but it was an amazing turnout nonetheless. People are fascinated by this stuff… and Cole spins an engaging, if quintessentially tangential tale. People hate chronological history anyway. He’s perfect, unless I had to figure out what to do to get an A on a midterm of his or something. In any case, in thispost, I’m just going to add a couple of my own tangents to the tale he told.

The talk was basically on the ill-fated arctic expedition of A.W. Greely. I suppose ill-fated arctic expedition is cliché. Oh well. And that’s Army Lt. Adolphus Washington Greely to you... Um… The point of the expedition, like many-to-most ill-fated arctic expeditions, was scientific. I’d argue that this one was more than just nominally “scientific” though. It was conducted under the aegis of the First International Polar Year (not sure if it was called the “First” at the time…) of 1881-1884. Don’t trip up on the obvious singular/plural issues… suffice it to say that sometimes scientific research goes into planned overtime… (e.g. I’ve been doing a two-and-a-half year Master’s degree for well on four years now)… Cole’s talk was given because we’re currently in the very middle of the Third International Polar Year, which is March 2007-March 2009. Yep, after one year, we, as a world, are halfway through the Year. OK, I can only beat that horse for so long… Anyway, the science conducted way back then actually resulted in some incredibly valuable (and beautiful) products. Check out http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/aro/ipy-1/. Incidentally, I’m being paid on IPY 2007-2009 grant funds as I write this… (not to write this, but as I write this… shhh… my adviser is in Washington DC right now…).

So, our hero: A.W. Greely. Hero? Well, yeah and nah. Unfortunately, though his other accomplishments through life were many and notable, his singular arctic expedition is certainly the outstanding, catastrophic low point. When 16 of your 22 men die, some with bellies full of the last guy to go… well, that’s not considered successful. In seriously sh%$ty times, a certain kind of person is really, really needed. One with “emotional intelligence deficit” (Cole’s words I presume) isn’t the kind of leader to roust the spirits of starving survivors. And though I’m not real acquainted with his biography, I’ve seen the bulleted points. As a kid he was uber-patriotic, and on his third try they let him join the ranks and he thence saw some serious Civil War action; well after the arctic affair he laid thousands of miles of telegraph line as a Signal Officer, including all over the American empire (Puerto Rico, Philippines, etc) and notably 4,000 miles into Alaska (beginning in 1904, news arrived to Nome in hours not months,); he was the military governor of San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake; and, I’m told, was commander during the “Ute Indian Rebellion.” You know, Ute as in Utah. Apparently the rebellion was ‘bloodless.’ Wow, now that’s different. Kudos Adolphus. For these and other accomplishments, he got the Medal of Honor late in life. Not sure what was mentioned at the awards ceremony mentioned about the arctic trip…

Yes, so back to those miserable stretch of months during the early 1880’s. Basically the mission was going well until a series, yes series, of resupply ships didn’t show. The fault did not lie with the men in the arctic. The fault lay with dudes behind desks and, one can relatively safely assume, weather (I’m assuming that was at least an excuse, as it can always be). The ship that finally picked up the sorry mess of remaining men only came at the persistent behest of Henrietta Greely, the lieutenant’s wife (this seems like another theme in arctic exploration tales…). These men we’re principally concerned with one thing for an ungodly long time: food. Before things got desperate and they struck out on foot across the sea ice retreating south, they stationed at a place called Fort Conger on Lady Franklin Bay, Ellesmere Island. (Go ahead Google Earth it). In Cole’s talk, he said they were certainly well supplied… that is, before they weren’t resupplied. Cole showed a neat picture of a very orderly looking “game rack” bedecked with provisions… One thing he didn’t emphasize (mention?) was that even during those good times, they were seriously living off the land. Over two years Greely’s 24 men ate a lot of wild game. (Notice something? Earlier I said 22 men, now I’m saying 24… the numbers puzzled me for a bit today… It was only a one hour talk, but I think Cole could have mentioned the 2 “Esquimaux” that swelled the mens ranks and perished with them – or at least one did from the primary source I’m looking at contained in Polar Journeys, the role of food and nutrition in early exploration by Robert E. Freeney - which come to find out, I actually have owned since last August… bought during a FMNB store frenzy). So, what kind of game is aplentiful in those parts up there? Well, apparently muskoxen are. Those couple dozen men consumed a whopping 17,500 pounds of muskoxen. Which equates to a ration of 16 ounces per day, per man. With “other game” adding a measely 0.8 oz a day, 60% of their protein came from muskox (the remainder was from food they brought). In all, they shot 103 muskox. Derived from Greely’s meticulous, scientifically minded records, the average yield per ‘ox was 77kg (169.7 lbs). This yield is lower than other estimates for muskox (e.g. 118kg average of 5 animals from another arctic expedition, or 114kg in another ). Peter Lent (in Muskoxen and Their Hunters, from which I’m getting these numbers) says perhaps the low average is due to waste or feeding dogs. I’d think that the latter would be noted by Greely, and I just can’t fathom or forgive the former. Perhaps they were getting some little ‘uns in there, bringing the average down… It’s absolutely amazing to me, but I actually have the ability to weigh-in (pun intended) on this issue from recent personal experience. My very own Nunivak muskoxen, which is now lying in neat saran-wrapped bricks in my and my brother’s chest freezer, weighed 182 pounds (82.6kg). Alaska Airlines made me, and Bank-of-America, very aware of that… So, 182 pounds is the weight after field dressing, but before de-boning. Basically it’s the weight of all the meat plus scapula, humerus, femur, tib-fib, radius-ulna, and canon bones. I’m not a vertebrate anatomist. Some of those names ain’t technically right I’m afraid… Anyway… point is, I know I didn’t waste an ounce of meat during processing, and so far haven’t fed any to dogs. (Though I do have a ziploc of scraps earmarked for a particular furry friend of mine). So, I really don’t know. My muskox was a young bull, probably 3 or 4 years. Although my sample size is 1, I think he might be “average.” However, the taste, oh, the exquisite taste. Let me digress. Muskox, I discovered on March 14, 2008, is my favorite red meat. My good friend Travis (I’m trying to think of a better word than hunting “mentor”…), has eaten wild game meat, and eaten widely, all his life. He has had muskox before, in Greenland actually (prbably closely related to those Greely’s guys ate), and he agrees that this muskox which the gods bestowed upon me, is some of the best meat… ever. Some Sandhill Crane rivals it, Travis says. I don’t know, I can’t vouch, I haven’t had. But muskox is delicious. Especially mine. I kind of regret not eating some of my muskox while still on Nunivak. My first bite of it was back in Fairbanks, all alone one evening, and still in a sort of adventure post-partem depression. I wish I could have had shared some with my Alaska Native host. Granted, I paid James Whitman, a Mekoryuk village Cupik eskimo, the big bucks to transport me into the field. It’s not exactly the communion that I wanted to share, but the perspective. When I shot the muskox I made a mistake. It was the wrong one, or rather not the one I intended to shoot. This meaning it didn’t have the largest horns in the group (OK, it had the smallest). The first thing James said when he walked over after the kill was “That’s going to be good table fare Ian. Don’t worry, you’re young. You can get the big one next time.” I really don’t know if there will be a next time, but I think he was being not merely conciliatory... Though he also, when introduced to Cliff Bar’s that day, deemed them delicious. Who knows... In any case, I wonder how Greely’s men would have ranked my muskox, (or even Cliff Bars for that matter)? I’d heard mixed reviews on muskox. I think it can in some circumstances, season, or to some palates be atrocious... the Greely men had no choice if a particularly musky one was shot one week… Often, for a few days or weeks after a big-game hunt I’ll eat a pretty highly protein rich diet… I’m not sure I’m ready to adhere to a Vilhjalmur Stefansson all meat (plus eggs/dairy) diet for a year, but I’m probably a decent candidate…though not prime… actually I'll confess that after eating quite a little bit of muskox for lunch and dinner for just a few days straight last week, a friend’s all-veggie spicy soup concoction was an extremely satiating change. I’ll bet the Greely guys would have agreed. Anyway, bottom line after all that… the Greely guys’ diet for a good while was definitely OK, since muskox was a big component… However… after those resupply ship(s!) were no-shows… the crew tragically decided to retreat south…

So Greely’s crew left Fort Conger and the muskox herds. And they started taking two steps forward for every one (or two) back on the perniciously (northward) shifting sea-ice. They did end up back on land, farther south, but not quite at anything like a final destination (except in the morbid sense of that phrase). They began consuming, for months aparently, quantities of tripe de roche (a dry lichen that grows on rock for those of you that don’t parle vous France) and their own sealskin garments and gear… At some point, at some really really bad bad point, another, grimmer item appeared on the menu… for some at least… I don’t know the who’s, or when’s, but for some there was something new on the menu... for others, yep, they were what was on the new menu… you know, there are very few things a human being can do, even depraved sexual things, that can result in as much stigma as eating from another human, no matter what role one played in that human's death. When the rescue party unearthed the shallowly buried soldiers to take them back for quote-unquote civilized, Christian burial, some grisly observations, were, well, obvious. “Some of the men had been little more than skin and bones when they died, but the little flesh they had was gone in some places, as on the calves of the legs, on the hips, thighs, and arms” wrote Naval Officer Winfield Scott Schley in his unambiguously titled report, The Bodies Were Mutilated. Interestingly, he mentions that “the body of the Esquimaux was not mutilated to any extent.” It’s not clear to me, with the scant research I’m putting into this post today, what happened to the other Eskimo… but the really, truly disgusting-on-so-many-levels, question begs, why not eat the native? I won’t even suggest my own ideas, since I don’t have any good ones, really. Though racial biases, and/or actual differenes in palatability would be among the totally dismal possibilities.

A couple other interesting things can be said about the ordeal. Afterwards, some serious rationalization ensued in attempt to thwart as best possible the paralyzing stigma “the six” endured. Interestingly, since this was an army affair, the stigma bled over onto the US government, no doubt exponentially multiplied by the bureaucratic blunderings responsible for the need that resulted in enlisted men eating each other. One chief bureaucrat was the guy who ran the War Department, and thus funded the army. This guy, historians say, apparently couldn’t care less about the arctic while the expedition was underway, but seriously needed to concoct rationalizations to sanitize the national guilt aftwerward. This guy was Robert Lincoln. Yes, Robert Todd Lincoln, son of Abraham Lincoln and Mary Todd Lincoln. This poor fellow. He has to be one of the most pathetic, jinxed figures in all of American History. After the Greely debacle, as Sarah Vowell says, he “had frozen blood on his hands.” It actually strains credulity to know that this guy was at (as in eyewitness at) his own father’s assassination, AND the assassination of president James Garfield in 1881. ASTOUNDINGLY, he was also at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, NY when president William McKinley was assassinated (though this time he didn’t witness it directly). As someone who doesn’t believe in luck, I would have to say this poor guy was the most unlucky figure in American history to be in any way whatsoever associated with. Considering he was the son of his mother, who held séances in the White House for his dead brothers, I would say Bob Lincoln probably felt some kind of real curse on his life. I digress some, but I’d like to say parenthetically that if you happen to know of a good history of the post-Abraham, Lincoln family, I’d like to read it… Wikipedia says that Robert’s firstborn was Abraham Lincoln II, aka “Jack,” and that the last direct descendant of the greatest leader of the greatest nation in the entire history of humanity (my own brazen claim there, hehe) died in 1985. Geeze. Is that as horribly depressing for you as it is for me?

OK, back to the arctic and cannibalism. One of the more ridiculous attempted sanitizations that Robert Lincoln and his counterpart, the secretary of the navy, again as Sarah Vowell puts it, was “announcing that the reason the bones of the dead had been mangled by knives was that the survivors cut up their comrades’ flesh to use as ‘shrimp bait.’ That’s how ugly the scandal was – that turning human flesh into shrimp bait was the positive spin.” W.S. Schley in his report apparently rebutted his boss (through a little forensic logic that I won’t get into) that “there seems, from the condition of the bodies, that there was no concerted action on the part of those remaining to sustain life in this way [fishing for shrimp with them]…[instead] is seems that the perishing men went to the bodies when hunger became unbearable and supplied themselves as best they could… terrible scenes must have been enacted by the famishing men in the Greely camp…” No S&%t. But did that “suppl[ing] as best they could” help? A particularly interesting concept, from a nutrition standpoint, is what’s known as “rabbit starvation.” This is kind of like the conundrum where you’re stuck on a raft adrift in the ocean and have no water except the limitless ocean all around. You’re screwed because it’s salt water, and it will do your body more harm than good. The idea of “rabbit starvation” as outlined by Stefansson, was that some kinds of game that are particularly lean, like rabbit (and definitely not like muskox), and are not going to offer adequate energy to sustain life. Lean meat is mostly protein, which has to be broken down to it’s constituent amino acids, which then have to be converted to glucose via gluconeogenesis and only then used as energy. I have no idea what the energy balance-sheet looks like for all that breaking down and converting (though I can think of at least two people I know who I could consult on this). Basically, one needs fat and carbs, molecules rich in carbon bonds to ready to crack for their energy. Still it’s not clear to me whether this lean meat situation is exactly analogous to drinking sea water, where the net benefit is definitely in the red. Steffansson said “some think a man will die sooner if he eats continually of fat-free meat than if he eats nothing, but this is a belief on which sufficient evidence for a decision has not been gathered in the North.” That was well over half a century ago. I should really consult a modern Nutrition text, or my friend Susan, a registered dietician, or my cousin Merra, studying nutrition as an undergrad at UW Laramie… anyway, it is also possible that we don’t know for sure… it’s not the easiest thing in the world to do scientific studies that involve starving people to death. Some Nazi quack-science was certainly performed, to the disgrace of the entire human race… but we may truly only know theoretically or based on lab rats (which we may someday determine are not identical to little humans), about “rabbit starvation”… Basically though, the idea at the time of Greely’s rescue was that perhaps the survivors could be exonerated of the stain of cannibalism, if perhaps those who did not eat their emaciated and nearly fat-free companions were thereby healthier and thus lived to beccme the stalwart, surviving group of "the six." (I have no idea what they had to say for themselves later in life). It is a nice idea, certainly. There would be some cosmic justice in that scenario, but who knows what the physiological basis for such a claim may or may not be. Oh, another aside: well over a century before Stefansson’s time, and half a century before Greely’s, another world traveler was making similar observations about meat. “Yet the Gaucho on the Pampas, for months together, touches nothing but beef. But they eat, I observe, a very large proportion of fat, which is of a less animalized nature; and they particularly dislike dry [i.e. lean, I’m guessing] meat, such as that of the Agouti. Dr. Richardson, also, has remarked, ‘that when people have fed for a long time solely upon lean animal food, the desire for fat becomes so insatiable, that they can consume a large quantity of unmixed and even oily fat without nausea.’” The observant twenty-something explorer who made those remarks was an english guy named Charles Darwin. The Dr. Richardson he references is Sir John Richardson, who himself had some arctic exploration experiences to write home about… and, which I think I’ll do a future post on… again, amazingly, a story that will allows me to weave a thin fibre of my own experience into it… but not now…

So, wrapping up… the title of this post is “How to starve in the arctic…” Yes, it’s irreverently sarcastic. I mean no insult to Greely or his men, I just wanted to catch your attention, duh… nevertheless, I’ve presented some clear answers to the question. One, put yourself WAY out there, farther North than any prior humans, and simultaneously trust really unlucky and distracted bureaucrats with your resupplies (i.e. your life)… And there are some less clear answers… e.g. eat human flesh… which may or may not help you... which perhaps nobody knows…

PostScript: I can remember one particular day (though the date eludes me) on one of my longer excursions from humanity… it was about midway on a 440 mile Noatak River float trip. It was a few days or a week or so since my brother and I had seen another human. What were we doing that day? Why, what we did every day. Rowing. Rowing. Rowing. Rowing… Rowing… Rowing… And, lord have mercy, eating lunch. Savory, delicious, precious lunch… Smoked gouda cheese, dry Italian salami, Sailor Boy pilot bread. Rationed out, in almost religious reverence by Trystan and myself to each other while we quietly floated past no-one. Then me, chewing, silently masticating that last bite, way longer than necessary, almost melancholic at the thought of its presence leaving my forlorn taste buds… then swallowing… then thinking for the next five or so hours, to the near exclusion of all the beauty, all the river, all the sun, all the tundra… of dinner. Hot, life sustaining, dinner. While I don’t think I lost that many pounds really during those few short weeks, the trip, once really underway, was really just the time between meals… I begrudged that. Why such an animal? Yet, despite my disproportionate flipped-focus, never…ever… even once, did Trystan look even vaguely appetizing. For that utter lack of ability to empathize with Greely’s men, I am infinitely grateful.

20 March 2008

"I could care less..."

So, though it's been a couple weeks, I should probably not be blogging at this precise moment. I've got some rather pressing things to do, namely I need to put together a talk for a branch meeting this Saturday (American Society for Microbiolgy, AK Branch). It'll be a rather small affair, one invited speaker, a famous microbiologist I've not hear of, and well, a bunch of locals. Despite that dis, I really like this meeting. This year, basically I will have 20 minutes to convince - mostly people from my lab- that I've made progress in the last 6 months. I guess I'm as curious as they are really...

In any case, no, I don't want to work on that right now... what I want to do is tell sundry things to the whole world (or those handful of individuals that will read this in no particular hurry relative to my urge to write it). Aside: The etymology of "Blog" is pretty well established, being a very recently born word... it's a portmanteau of weblog. But I'd argue it's also onomonopoetic. I don't know if anyone has yet to argue that blog is onomonopoetic. I don't want to know, so I won't Google it. I would like to think this afternoon that I'm the first person to be struck that Blog has connotations similar to burp, or belch, barf, other b- words. Like... like.. the sound that verbal diarreah makes when it can't be held back from the keyboard. We all have to blog at times, just let's try not to do it in public or more than we abosolutely have to.

So, despite that introduction, I'd like to announce that I have nothing particularly well thought out or formulated for you today. Don't get your hopes up (ever...), it's just that my fingers get to itching, and I feel like I may suffer consequences if I don't write together the loose threads of thought that seem like they might be braided into something emergent. (I'm seriously swapping/mixing metaphors here, sorry... am I braiding or barfing? not sure)... In any case, today's meandering musings will be on: science training, scientific success, apathy, causation vs. correlation, and beer. Or maybe something else. Oh, and the Gray Lady, the New York Times . She'll make a couple cameos. She's always invited... poor Gray Lady, she probably get's blogged on more than almost anyone else...

So, my title... So, today I sub tought a science course lab for a friend who is out of town. It was a computer lab, and I arrived early to set up the projector. Two students, who having never seen me before, were having no reason not to speak candidly. "What the hell are we doing in lab today?" asks one to the other a few yard away from me (diligently futzing with the projector setup, which I thought might have been a good clue). "I have no idea... I could care less." Right... Actually, I think it might be telling (about me) that the first thing that entered my own private thought baloon was: "Could NOT. You could NOT care less!" A reaction of secondary intensity was the more obvious mild annoyance at the blase attitude. It turned out later these were a couple rather sharp students... but that's immaterial... I've been through enough educational institutions to know that blase is cool someplaces (Turlock High School, I was VERY cool...) and the antithesis of cool elsewhere (At Berkeley, I was, well, sort of cool... I think, but don't quote me on that)... In any case... the first thing I did in lab was have everyone discuss a recent article in the NYT by Amy Harmon. She covers a lot of DNA and genome issues. You can email her at dna@nytimes.com. 'Nuff said. Nick Wade is good too. Read his book: Before the Dawn. Um... OK. So the article we read (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/health/research/04geno.html)
deals with the story of the first millionaire to pay a commericial outfit to sequence his genome. He forked over $350,000. If you'll allow me to do some math that I believe is original to me and not something Ms. Harmon figured... we have the following:

Equation 1.

three hundred fifty thousand [dollars] divided by six billion [approximate base pairs in a diploid human genome] times 100 [pennies in a dollar]

I kid you not: if you copy and paste the above into Google (sans brackets and included text), it will duly crunch those words and spit out: 0.00583333333. That's right. Folks, by my calculation this guy bought his own "book of life" for 0.005 cents per letter. So, is that a "good deal"? It's a ridiculous question of course. Amy Harmon reports the conceit of comparing the total price tag to a new Bently. Old Jim Watson is then quoted as saying to him it's a toss up between a Bently and one's genome sequence. He of course had his genome sequence a bit back now, for the price tag of $1.5 million... not out of his own pocket though. Jim think's the Bently is a "nice car," but hey, he's already got his genome sequenced... he's looking forward to the day of the "Chevrolet genome." And that's of course the point of the article... the price is dropping... someday... soon... we, me and you, will have the option, or doctor's recommendation...we'd better figure out whether we could care more or less, 'cause soon we'll have to start making some decisions... In fact, there's a whole slate of things to talk about regarding that, but I have two very discrete things I meant to be on track for with this post. First, I wanted to use a slightly different conceit than the luxury car metaphor... how about the more apt metaphor of a book. I'd argue that the story contained in a human genome is the single most interesting story that the universe has ever produced. Woaa, that sounds pretty bold now that I'm looking at it... I'm wanting to hedge now- my natural instinct is to say incredibly declarative brazen things and immediately hedge- but no. I do think this. The human "book of life" says more of interest than any other single record that has ever existed. I believe that. So how does the price compare... Well using the following Google Search

"average book new york times bestseller 'number of words'"

The hit that I liked occured midway down the first page and stated:

"Most nonfiction books average about 50,000 to 80,000 words."

OK, rigorous research done. Let's say 60,000. I'm going to say that $30 is average for hardcover. Please, don't argue... you'll see why...

So, Google, tell me... 30 [dollars] divided by sixty thousand [words] times 100 [pennies per dollar] = [drumroll] 0.05 cents. (finishing touch to the fuzzy math is that the average word has 10 letters, I have no reason other than my own desire to believe that is true... but hey.)

Wow. So I'd say the current rate of a genome is about the same as a new hardcover book on a per letter basis. Or within an order of magnitude one way or another. So, I think IT IS a good deal... And only getting better as the paradigms shift... So, can I ask you "Could you care less?" I know I could. A lot.

Ian

P.S. I just blew an hour on this digital back of the envelope blog and it's math. I'll try to stay away from even my brand of fuzzy math in the future... But, having worn myself out, I'm going to save my musings on the relationship between scientific success and beer and the Times article that goes with that for another day soon. I'll keep you posted. Hey, but I'll put up a couple quotations to end this particularly bloggy blog entry...


"Education is a progressive discovery of our own ignorance."
- Will Durant

... a lot of quotations say about the same thing, to varying degrees of pith, but they're all true...


"Against logic there is no armor like ignorance."
- Laurence J. Peter

... yep... but wearing armor couldn't be bliss... that crap looks uncomfy at best...


"Reminds me of my safari in Africa. Somebody forgot the corkscrew and for several days we had to live on nothing but food and water."
- WC Fields

... this will segue nicely into my next post on scientists and beer and causation vs. correlation...