26 April 2008

Scottish Connections...



All it takes are a few chance triangulations of circumstances, blended with a little googlewikiing, and presto I have the makings of a new blog cocktail, or blogtale if you will... Today the main ingredients are Scotland and, well, Scottish things. I'll serve it up in a cup designed by an ancestor of mine, George Heriot, pictured above...

This week I'm at a new housesitting gig... It's a nice home up on Chena Ridge, the residential area west of the University where 3/4 of my academic committee live... aka "Snob Hill" to some. Everyone I know up here however are great folks... it's just their view of The River and The Range is a about a hundred thousand dollars better than mine. Right now, I'm typing while looking out on the increasingly slushy Tanana river and flats beyond. The folks I'm sitting for are a wonderful breed of people, the librarian. He is emeritus at UAF. They have fantastic book collections, with rich holdings in Alaskana, sailing/boatmaking, cookbooks, outdoor Americana, and literary fiction... he is a proud member of the ACLU and the NRA (he does his own handloading), and has a beautiful knife collection adorning an entire wall. The New Yorker, Sierra, Audobon, Wooden Boat, the American Hunter, Gray's Sporting Journal, and 4 or 5 national newspapers can be found on surfaces around the house. The couple has the most organized, densely stocked, well provisioned cupboard, bar, and cheese drawer I have seen. The spice shelf is alphabetized and exhaustive. Foremost among the themes of the house is Scotland. He is a prominent member of the Fairbanks Red Hackle Pipe Band. He has an impressive collection of single malt scotch whiskey: a few bottles, some unopened, were distilled when I was in diapers and bottled when I was in high school.

Something Scottish that caught my eye the other afternoon: a couple paperboard beer coasters on an end table in the entertainment room. Having two of them, I took a photo of obverse and reverse:



Notice anything? Yes, that's my surname, sans redundant lettering. Through a bit of googlewikiing I found that Edinburgh was home to the Heriot brewery from 1837 to, alas, the late 1990's. I'm not sure of the details, but it is no longer extant. Thanks to Goolge books, here is an entry from an 1869 book. I provide a colorful snippet...

The Industries of Scotland Their Rise, Progress, and Present Condition By David Bremner: "A description of the malting and brewing establishments of Messrs J Jeffrey & Co of the Heriot Brewery will convey some idea of the mode in which an extensive business of this kind is carried on The malting premises bottling house and ale stores of this firm are at Roseburn at the extreme west end of the city while their brewery is in the Grassmarket This separation is a considerable inconvenience but as the brewery by repeated extensions occupied every inch of available ground it became imperative when further extension was required to sever the connection between the malting and brewing departments Accordingly a year or two ago the firm acquired a site at Roseburn adjoining the Caledonian Railway and erected thereon malting premises and stores of great extent and fitted up in the most complete manner The malt bar n is a "


I know with some certainty that my "rr" "tt" progenitors were over in another hemisphere by this time in the 1830's. But what I'm not sure of is the relationship between the Heriot Brewery and the rather famous Scotsman George Heriot of Edinburgh two centuries prior, whose portrait hung in my grandfather's study during my childhood....

George Heriot was the oldest of ten, descended from the Heriots of Trabroun, a "family of some antiquity in East Lothian." From the 1877 book:

The Scottish Nation By William Anderson, William Holl, William James Linton: "HERIOT [is] a surname derived from a legal term hariot or heriot being under the feudal system a due belonging to a lord at the death of his tenant consisting of his best beast either horse ox or cow ... The name is old in Scotland ....William John and Gilbert Heriot safely conducted Robert the Steward out of the reach of his enemies when eagerly sought after by the English. The lands of Trabrown in East Lothian were granted by the earl of Douglas to John Heriot about 1423 ... Of this family was the celebrated George Heriot..."

George Heriot was, in highly abbreviated bio, was a goldsmith who became jeweler to Queen Anne of Denmark, and then to her husband King James VI in 1601. Apparently he sort of shifted from crafting gold to financing it, and made himself luxuriantly wealthy. This apparently wasn't uncommon. An official request by Queen Anne for a quick loan is interesting on a few levels (from "Cassell's Old and New Edinburgh," 1882 by James Grant)



"GEORDG HERIOTT I ernestlie dissyr youe present to send me twa hundrethe pundis vithe all expidition becaus I man hest me away presentlie ANNA R"

My rough modern translation:

"Geordie, hook me up with 200 Pounds, immediately, I gotta get outta here this weekend."

Isn't it interesting, and I'm no scholar on such things, how seriously loose spelling was back then? I like that she put an extra T in there though.

Heriot moved to London when King James became James I of England, and he died there in 1624. After a couple of wives (sad deaths at young ages), he had sired two sons, but no legitimate children were left in his will upon his death. A tragic death at sea of two brothers is inferred. A couple of young women were to be found in his will, and are presumably "natural heirs" (i.e. illegitimate). In any case, that particular line of the Heriot name ended with "Jingling Geordie" it seems (that moniker is from Sir Walter Scott's George Heriot character made famous in "The Fortunes of Nigel").

So George Heriot's name did not live on in flesh, but it did in stone. A sizable chunk of his change went to establishing an institution in Edinburgh called the "Heriot Hospital" for "faitherless bairns" (Scots for "orphaned children"), which still exists in a pretty prestigious way (http://www.george-heriots.com/HeriotsHome.htm). An old image of this place is found in "Cassell's Old and New Edinburgh." Notice again the loose spellings... "Heriott Orphanotrophium" vs. "Heriot's Hospital" right below.

Cassell's old and new Edinburgh By James Grant: "ORPHAUOTR OPK1VM J&fata REDUCED FACSIMILE OF A VIEW OF HERIOT"


George Heriot's name also lent itself to Heriot-Watt University, also in Edinburgh. Yes, that Watt, as in the unit of power equal to one joule of energy per second. Not that the Scots were contemporaneous... Watt was born in Greenock Scotland a hundred years after Heriot's death. However, the nascent university chose those two for it's name... it's website today says that it was the worlds first "technical institute," and it stands as the 8th oldest University in the UK. It now has 17,000 students and four campuses, three in Scotland, and one in Dubai of all places.

So there's lots more history of George Heriot out there. I'm not really sleuthing anything new here... but this stuff is immensely interesting to to me though because I spent a lot of time gazing at George Heriot as a kid.

The picture in my grandfather's study was a black and white drawing in a gilded frame. I presumed that pretty much there wasn't much to be known more about this person. He wasn't in the WorldBook or any of the other books on my grandfather's shelves. This was in the late 80's, before the internet came to my home... Neither the Turlock nor Modesto libraries had much more info, at least to the extent an amateur historian of single digit age could find. So George Heriot was sort of a minor diety in my childish worldview... someone I was told I was related to in some sort of hazy way, in a sort of divine way in my head... meaning, not really a relationship that that can be figured out concretely, but nevertheless should be taken as granted and thusly revered, the way only things that haven't been figured out are supposed to be revered.

But whence this portrait? This portrait that I'll hang in my Alaskan cabin one of these days? Well... using my extensive art history research training (not), I've concluded that it was based on a painting by Paul van Somer, and copied John Scougall in 1698. The original is now lost. Most of the black and white prints are copies of Scougall's painting copy. The one from my grandfather's study is, I think, a reprint of a Scougall copy, published by John and Charles Esplens in 1743. It's a bit confusing though... the National Portrait Gallery (UK) has 6 portraits (only two of which have images online), which include those by: "John and Charles Esplens, after Paul Van Somer," (huh? I thought Wikipedia said Somer's was lost?), "David Scougall, after D. Lizars' (huh? Who is David, and is he related to John?), "John and Charles Esplens, after David Scougall" (What? Are we going in circles here?), "Robert Cooper, after David Scougall" (OK....) Interestingly, the Wikipedia article says "Scougal had a very extensive practice, which latterly led him into some hasty work, said to be observable in the portrait of George Heriot, which he copied in 1698 from the now lost original by Paul van Somer." If the original is AWOL, that judgment of hastiness must arise not from a failure of likeness, but I suppose in a failure of technique. Hmm... The same entry doesn't bash Scougall's portraits of William III, Queen Mary, or Queen Anne. In fact, Queen Mary's is "by far the best - well drawn, good in colour, and suggestive of the influence of Van Dyke's work."

Here's the painting attributed to Scougall, notice the gold he holds in his hand:



And here is the derivative drawing that is part of the imagery of my childhood:



Here is a portrait of Queen Anne, by Marcus Gheeraerts the Younger, c.1605-10. Meaning that the jewels she wears are perhaps crafted by Heriot...to my knowledge I'm the first to notice this, but it looks like maybe the pearl necklace in the two portraits is the same... not sure... Also... that picture of George Heriot's drinking cup from the beginning of this blog, designed by himself, and it occurs to me, probably crafted by himself.




In any case, a lot can change over the generations. The story of the Herriott's in America is very far removed from the Royal Court... My progenitor, David Herriott, appears came to New Jersey in the late 1680's... probably as an indentured servant to Lord Campbell... The story of the family in America is also colorful, though certainly not as highbrow... Stuff for another story...

23 April 2008

The Gobi comes to Fairbanks...

Today I noticed two things from my Tanana River bluff vista. First, the River developed some really nice blue puddles on top of the slushy snow. They grew noticably, like a time-lapse video right before my eyes over the course of my 9am-9pm workday in front of the window...Secondly, I couldn't help but notice the haze obscuring my beloved Alaska Range... this would-be annoying sky-scum has been totally redeemed by the amazing fact that it originates from Russian forest fires started this week. Also contributing to the haze is dust blown in from storms in the Gobi Desert. Wow... Dust from the Gobi Desert. That that is even possible kind of floors me. Somehow I just don't feel that close to central Asia, but I guess I am. I sort of wish I could go outside and put some in a jar.My brother's girlfreind's academic advisor at UAF, Dr. Cathy Cahill, is an atmospheric scientist who basically specializes in stuff in the air other than air, and was quoted in the Newsminer today saying this is a particularly stormy year in the Gobi. The season is April-May. The worst year was 2001, when dust went as far east as Greenland. Gobi to Greenland. What a journey for a speck of dust...

One other Gobi desert traveler is here in town this week: Helen Thayer, the adventurer, the first woman to walk to either of earths poles (the North one) without dog or snowmachine. She is a hero(ine) of mine. This Friday she'll speak on her trek through the Gobi Desert. Here's to travel... by dust and woman...

Josie the Golden (oblivious, apparently, to puddle and haze alike):

14 April 2008

Reach out and touch some moose...

I know almost nothing about the so-called "telephone." Yet today I bought one using my (anticipated) Economic Stimulus Package $600. Thanks GeeDubb... As far as I can tell that's the only thing your sorry presidency has ever done for me. In truth, I had been planning to put my 6 Benjamins towards my crushing credit card debt, just as the Fed feared I would. But hell, I thought this morning, first I'll swipe my credit card, then I'll wait a few weeks for my stimulation to arrive. That way everybody wins! Seems very American, no? So I bought an iPhone and a 2-year contract. And here's what I learned via 10 minutes on Wikipedia about the proud heritage of my new gizmo:

A brief timeline of historic spoken telecommunications events:

1844-1875... various Europeans tinker with "speaking telegraphs"

1875-77(ish). Americans Bell, Gray, and Edison file patents up the wazoo for various telephone-y devices... a complex story, best glossed in blogs...

1981... AT&T ("American Telephone & Telegraph" until 2005 for crying out loud) launch famous add campaign slogan "Reach out and touch someone."
As a kid, Ian, hearing this phrase, would puzzle over how it seemed not quite the right thing to say about telephones... very little touching going on, the way Ian understood them...

2000... Now twenty-year-old Ian goes to Berkeley with little black cellular phone that his mom gave him. Played "Snake" alot on it. Called home dutifully around midterms or finals... (pers. comm. - data not found on Wikipedia). Subsequently discarded and forgotten for the better part of a decade.

2008... After years of flak from family and acquaintances who would allegedly call if the opporunity were there, Ian buys the absolute apex of telephone evolution, the iPhone. Drives to the spruce forest he optimistically considers his future cabin, and makes some phone calls to family and friends, and incidentally, while talking inside his truck, comes closer to living moose than ever before in his life. Takes pictures with iPhone camera while speaking on speaker phone. What Hath God Wraught? (oops, wrong gizmo...)

2009... to infinity and beyond...










13 April 2008

V is for Viszla... W is for Weimaraner...

As I write, I'm finishing my 2007 taxes (with 2 days to spare if you'll believe that), and watching two pooped pups laze on a sofa. I'm on day 3 of a week of dog sitting quite the pair of specimens of Man's best friend. They're both gorgeous creatures, but are thoroughly wearing me out. We eat together, read together, sleep together... when I forgot to close the bathroom door when filling the tub, we almost ended up bathing together. They have insatiable needs to go outside every 5 minutes to run around, and then almost immediately they make a fabulous ruckus expressing urgent need to get back inside... to rest? no, to run around the couch ferociously. The shear energy of these two is exhausting me... They are both sweet creatures though. The darling little Vizla, Brooks, needs imperatively to sit within a yard of my face, wherever that may be, and whine sweetly in some sort of pained affection. That, or sit right at my feet and scan incessantly while huffing and grumbling at all the potential threats that may be responsible for the minor noises of the surrounding neighborhood. The photos below don't totally capture these draining experiences, but they're all I've got... I'm experiencing digital camera "issues" these days, so am taking pics with my computer...

This is a really deceptive photograph. Kele, the Weimaraner, usually doesn't sit still. This photo reminds me of the famous William Wegman Weimaraners...







This was funny... I was warned this might happen... and it did... fortunately there wasn't much water in the tub, though to my touch it was scalding... crazy little girl...





In any case, we're having fun, but I'm not sure these are the breed for me. What I find endlessly fascinating is the predictive ability of the breed description. These little creatures are such obedient servants to their genetic destiny. They're rather closely related breeds actually. If you're interested, see Wiki entries:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Vizsla
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimaraner

07 April 2008

Sweet Home Ala...laska

Yesterday, after the interview for my summer Instructor job, I decided to put off procrastinating about all the stuff I really should be doing... So I decided it would be a good time for a joyride around my future neighborhood of Fox, Alaska. I'm building a cabin overlooking Fox this summer, and the gears in my brain are starting to crank up again... I'm getting kinda excited... So, while watching the minute hand on the clock of April slowly tick by, anticipating my winning Nenana Ice Classic guess and share of the jackpot, I thought I'd get some ideas for how to spend that windfall on building this summer. I wanted to document some of the character of the area... I wanna fit in of course... Just another chance to bolster my feel for the milieu my new 'hood...

So I took a few pictures along the way... me crusin' my 'hood.. I used the little built-in camera on my MacBook Pro. This is an extremely challenging and rather inadvisable way to take decent pictures, the only redemptive thing being that a laptop is a fantastic tripod (er, monopod).



My Acre of pristine Black Spruce... I got a little bit of work to do... but not today... I ain't even getting outa the truck today...


Same place on a pretty spring day last year... Down in the Valley is historic Fox, AK.



Just down the road are some really interestingly zoned parcels... My neigborhood covenants say things like I need to have a minimum of 400 square feet, and no livestock, or sewage treatment plants, or penitentiaries, or nuclear reactors... But I guess my neighbors can have Geodesic Domes and Ice Tower's. I'm glad, these things are Cool with a capital C... but I'm skeptical whether they're MY style...



Just accross the street is the Trans-Alaska Pipeline... a nice pullout for millions of tourerists that come thick as 'skeeters in the summer. Actually, I bet this is the most frequently visited/photographed hundred yards of the whole 800 mile affair. From my cabin I think I'll be able to see a nice cleared swath of forest on the opposite side of the valley where the pipe's buried... It's aboveground at the viewpoint, as even tourerists are likely to presume...



Down the road from the viewpoint, there're some real highlights of the high-latitudes. The furthest north microbrewery, Silver Gulch, and the 'Dawg across the street, and the true source of all things good, the Fox Spring. A popular T-shirt reads: "Fox, AK. Where the People are Unusual and the Beer is Unusually Good." I'll plead the 5th...







And if that weren't enough, I forgot to mention that between the pipe and the drink, is my favorite hole in the whole world. The Cold Regions Research Engineering Laboratory Permafrost Tunnel. I like to think of it as a time-machine. Inside there are literally bones and roots sticking out of the walls from organisms that lived 10's of thousands of years ago. It smells like a barnyard. I've heard it described as "Odeur de mammouth." It's dark, cold, and dirty, and old. I love it!



Oh, so why the tunnel? Well, this whole Fox area was a bigtime gold mining area the first half of the 20th century... This fact makes it remind me in a big way of my beloved home state of CA's motherload region...



Fox is also the fork in the road to Alaska's two highways into the arctic. The Steese goes up to Circle, and dead-ends at the Yukon River. The Elliot goes to Livengood, where the Dalton Highway will take you 414 miles further to Prudhoe Bay...





On my way back to UAF, a couple other noteworthy residential building concepts present themselves... I don't think the plane-house is being lived in now... not sure about the Tower-house... sorry for the crap picture, it's actually impressive... but again, not my style...





So, bottom line: I think I'll not be doing tunnels or towers or planes or domes... I think I'll stick with a good old log cabin... Here's a map of the places I visited... note that the unvegetated area on the valley bottom is not city/concrete, but gen-you-ine historic mining tailings...



All for now... see ya later... stop by Fox sometime!

03 April 2008

Don't Bet on April 31st...

The Nenana Ice Classic guess submission deadline is day after tomorrow, Saturday April 5. Don't miss it! Guess early and guess often. No, that's voting... Guess late and don't go crazy, that's the best strategy...let me explain.

In my last post I outlined, quite convincingly I feel, what a hopeless guesser I am. How the first year Rationality and Reason prevailed and every year since I picked past winning times kinda willy-nilly and according to birthday's of relatives and pretty girls. Nevertheless I'm going to now segue directly into why I should be convincing you how to guess scientifically... It's back to Reason for me too this year...

First, I established in a comment to the last post that the best guess is April 30, since that is the day on which the most Breakups have occurred. It seems to be the "average" day, and the guess of mine that is almost always closest. But, the question arises, has April 30 always been the average day?

Below is a graph of Breakup date over the years:




OK... "Year" is on the Y-axis, and "Day after Jan 1" on the X-axis is just another way to note the date... What do you see? If you're like me, you see dots... Another way to look at the same exact data is to connect the dots:




OK... Now what do you see? These connected dots show "trends" better, and to me, it looks like the jaggedy line is kind of going down-ish... But IS IT? Well, statistics to the rescue... going back to the original dot view, and plotting a regression line we get...



The red regression line points down. Notice, that the beginning of the line is at about the level of 129 "Days after Jan 1," i.e. about May 8. Notice, that the right end of the line is at about the level of 121 "Days after Jan 1," i.e. about May 1. So, there it is. Breakup is happening *on average* one week early now then when the Ice Classic started. That fact is "statistically significant." All those numbers to the right of the graph tell us that, particularly one that say's "p(uncorr):0.0009916." What that tells us is the chance that this line doesn't actually point down (i.e. have a negative slope, i.e. breakup happening earlier). The chance that this statistical "inference" isn't legitimate is less than 0.0001,meaning a 1/10,000 chance breakup isn't happening earlier, or conversely a 99.999% chance breakup is happening earlier. OK, I'm convinced... but... has it been *gradually* getting earlier. Like, a day a decade, e.g.? Well, look back at the first graph... To me it looks like the jaggedy line starts going south in a hurry about 1970... what do you think? ... If I break up the dataset into two periods 1917-1970 and 1971-2007 and do the same statistical test, on each period individually we get the following. First, 1917-1970:



Well now... turns out that the average date of breakup didn't get statistically signicficantly earlier or later from 1917-1970! Wow... that's interesting... how about 1970-now?



Wow, that's striking. The date of Breakup got way earlier since 1970. What's going on? I haven't a clue.

But, you might fairly ask, great but how is this going to make me rich? Well, all this tells you is the best date to guess, the current "average" date. So, the end of that red line "now" is at about day 119-120 or something, i.e. April 30...

But there has to be something "beneath" that variation or trend in Breakups... Breakup is a combination of things, ice melting because of warmer temperatures in spring, snow melting and flushing into the river and pushing the ice up and out, etc... so, one would imagine that if the ice is thinner, these things would cause Breakup to happen earlier... Is that the case? Well, ice thickness has been measured at the tripod, not since the beginning, but they have since 1989. Below is a graph of the data. On the Y-axis is Breakup date, on the X-axis is not "year," but instead "ice thickness," as measured on about April 1 every year. You don't need to know which dots come from which years, and it doesn't matter (see P.S. if you're interested):



So, here's what this means. Thicker ice in spring tends to result in later Breakups. If ice thickness didn't matter, then the line would be flat. It's not. You can imagine that ice thickness measure on December 1 might result in a flat line, since there's a lot that can happen between then and Breakup, extreme cold snaps, extreme warm snaps, etc... i.e. the predictive power of an ice-measurement on April 1st is much better than the predictive power on Dec 1. Duh... but how "good" a predictor is April 1 ice? Damn good actually. It can explain about 42% (say the stats on the right) of the "variation." If it explained 100% then all the dots would be right on the line, and you'd know exactly when Breakup would be just based on ice thickness. But 42% is darn good for a single "predictor variable." Other things explain the rest. Things like air temperature or how much snow is in the hills contributing to "flushing" the ice out. But we don't have that data. All we have is ice-thickness. So... almost done... what you should do is go to the Ice Classic website, figure out what the measurement for April 1 was this year, find that thickness on the X-axis and see what date to guess... that's what I did in 2004, and I did, meh... OK... Anyway, this is the best reason to guess late, to wait for that April 1 ice measurement, the best predictor. Oh, as for time of day. Throw a dart at a clock... No, just kidding. The early afternoon seems good... Oh, and of course, you can ignore all this and just go with your intuition... In any case, GOOD LUCK!


(P.S. There, apparently is no correlation between year and date or year and thickness in the 1989-2007 dataset... interesting)

Links:
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

Advanced Reading:

An article in the prestigious peer reviewed journal Science by a Stanford scientist (Wherein Tanana is misspelled Tenana):
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/294/5543/811
And it's interpretation:
http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2001/october31/alaskabet-1031.html

A caveat (that I haven't addressed) written by the same scientist in the other of the worlds two most prestigious journals, Nature:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v414/n6864/full/414600a.html
And it's interpretaion:
http://news-service.stanford.edu/pr/01/leapyear1212.html

A lengthy retort by some guy on the internet (who has way more graphs than I do, no fair!):
http://www.john-daly.com/nenana.htm

Some journalists have noticed the Nenana Ice Classic over the years
(Thanks Google "News Archive Search"!):



E.g. in 1973, about the time things were heating up... the NYT ran an article:
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20813F93954137A93CAA9178ED85F478785F9

An article by Sagarin "In Support of Observational Studies":
http://www.esajournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1890%2F1540-9295(2007)5%5B294%3AWBSOOS%5D2.0.CO%3B2&ct=1

... this may not be my last Ice Classic Post... It's about all I think about this month...